RESEARCH PAPER
Mortality trends for most common types of cancer in silesia voivodeship in short term projection
1
Zakład Epidemiologii i Ślàski Rejestr Nowotworów Centrum Onkologii – Instytut im. M. Skłodowskiej-Curie, Oddział w Gliwicach Kierownik Zakadu: Prof. dr hab. n. med. Brunon Zemła
Corresponding author
Brunon Zemła
Zaklad Epidemiologii i Ślàski Rejestr Nowotworów Centrum Onkologii – Instytut im. M. Skłodowskiej-Curie Oddzial w Gliwicach ul. Wybrzeże Armii Krajowej 15 44-101 Gliwice Tel./fax + 4832 278 97 03, tel. +48 601 068 763
Zaklad Epidemiologii i Ślàski Rejestr Nowotworów Centrum Onkologii – Instytut im. M. Skłodowskiej-Curie Oddzial w Gliwicach ul. Wybrzeże Armii Krajowej 15 44-101 Gliwice Tel./fax + 4832 278 97 03, tel. +48 601 068 763
Med Srod. 2011;14(2):24-31
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
Background:
The incidence of morbidity and mortality of cancers rapidly increase in the world and so it is in case of Poland and Silesia Voivodeship. Therefore an attempt is made to assess this phenomenon in projection scale within Silesia Voivodeship.
Material and Methods:
The time-trends analysis of the six most common types of cancer have been selected: stomach, colorectal, pancreas and lung (among both genders), prostate (among males) and breast (among females). For the period 1990–2008 age standardized mortality rates have been determined. Time-trends in mortality with employment of joinpoint regression have been estimated and depending on trends linear or log-linear regression models were used which set up the base for short-term projection.
Results:
For the year 2018 projection values of mortality rates among males will drop (with the exception of lung and colorectal cancers). For prostate cancer – the values will be increasing. Among females stomach mortality rates will drop, but again lung cancer mortality rate will double in comparison to data for 1990.
Conclusions:
1. The prognostic number of death to 2018 year concern all studied cancer increasing, for exept stomach cancer. 2. Especially will be increasing cancer mortality standardized rates for lung cancer among females and prostate and colorectal cancers among males.
The incidence of morbidity and mortality of cancers rapidly increase in the world and so it is in case of Poland and Silesia Voivodeship. Therefore an attempt is made to assess this phenomenon in projection scale within Silesia Voivodeship.
Material and Methods:
The time-trends analysis of the six most common types of cancer have been selected: stomach, colorectal, pancreas and lung (among both genders), prostate (among males) and breast (among females). For the period 1990–2008 age standardized mortality rates have been determined. Time-trends in mortality with employment of joinpoint regression have been estimated and depending on trends linear or log-linear regression models were used which set up the base for short-term projection.
Results:
For the year 2018 projection values of mortality rates among males will drop (with the exception of lung and colorectal cancers). For prostate cancer – the values will be increasing. Among females stomach mortality rates will drop, but again lung cancer mortality rate will double in comparison to data for 1990.
Conclusions:
1. The prognostic number of death to 2018 year concern all studied cancer increasing, for exept stomach cancer. 2. Especially will be increasing cancer mortality standardized rates for lung cancer among females and prostate and colorectal cancers among males.
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